Berks – Lancaster – Lebanon area projected to have more than 20% more people by 2040

population growth

The March 2014 report, “Pennsylvania Population Projections 2010-2040” shows remarkable population increases for the Berks – Lancaster – Lebanon Counties area. Based on the population data projection, the area will have 20.7% more people than in 2010.

“Population data are used by public and private agencies and businesses in numerous ways for policy development, project planning, and program evaluation. Policy and program development often require information on how the state’s population is expected to change over the next 5, 10, or 15 years. Data are especially needed to plan for schools, transportation, day care and elderly care centers, work force development, long-term care, and many other areas. While the decennial census and affiliated survey programs are rich sources of data on the social and economic characteristics of Pennsylvania’s residents, each census/survey presents a static portrait of life in the commonwealth at one fixed point in time. Projections provide a way to look at future population.

“If the projections are accurate, the population of Pennsylvania will increase to 14.1 million in 2040, up from 12.7 million in 2010. Almost 72 percent of the increase will be due to domestic net-migration or overseas migrants arriving from 2010 to 2040, with overseas migrants accounting for more than 85 percent of this portion of the increase. The remaining 28 percent of the increase during this period is due to natural increase (births exceeding deaths).

“The projections also provide an analysis of Pennsylvania’s future ‘dependency ratio’ – the ratio of the economically dependent part of the population to the productive part; arbitrarily defined as the ratio of the elderly (those 65 years and over) plus the young (those under 20 years of age) to the population in the ‘working ages’ (those 20-64 years of age). There were 68 children and elderly people per 100 adults of working age in 20102. That number will rise to 86 dependents per 100 adults of working age in 2040.” – SOURCE – “Pennsylvania Population Projections 2010-2040” report.


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